Canelo vs GGG – Alvarez the money draw

Updated: 20th September 2023

Gennady ‘GGG’ Golovkin and Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez clash in a genuine super fight on Saturday, September 16 in Las Vegas. Our boxing expert, with 12 years in the game and over 150 shows attended gives his preview and verdict on the Canelo vs GGG fight.

Canelo vs GGG Records

• Dominant middleweight Golovkin comes into the ring with a 37-0 record, consisting of 33 knockouts.
• Mexico’s Alvarez knows how to shift Pay-Per-View sales into the millions. He arrives with a 49-1-1 record, of which 34 opponents have been eliminated early.

Canelo vs GGG Odds

Golovkin favourite at 4/6 with Canelo coming in at 5/4.

The draw sits at its usual spot around 20/1 with most bookmakers.

Canelo vs GGG Knockout Odds

If you’re looking for a knockout either way then the betting, as often is the case, closely reflects the consensus of the fight amongst fight fans, scribes and pundits.

Alvarez’s massive price for an early knockout and odds around the 60/1 and 70/1 region late in the fight are indicative of Golovkin’s physical strength, cast iron chin and strong recuperative powers.

On the latter point, has the Kazakh fighter ever had to even display any great recuperative powers?

He can be hit fairly easily at times (more by presenting the opportunities to lacklustre opponents in his earlier fights, it must be said). However can he be hurt?

A clip of Golovkin taking a flush shot bang on the chin from a much bigger Danny Jacobs -who can punch a bit too- with little to no effect, circled the internet after their fight earlier this year.

I recall speaking to Matthew Macklin in 2014 about his experiences when trying to defeat the beast, live on HBO in 2013.

Matthew spoke of Golovkin’s underrated ability to manoeuvre opponents around the ring. Not only on the end of his ramrod jab but also with his subtle footwork and movements that work his foes hard, often without even throwing a shot.

Canelo will have to find a way around this and he certainly has the talent to be able to do so.

But does Canelo have the stamina and the gas tank down the stretch?

GGG priced at 16/1 for a knockout in rounds eight and nine and 17/1 in round 10.

The value for money may lie in the 11th or 12th where the Kazakh could conceivably take over. This has led some to fancy the enticing 8/1 on a Golovkin KO, in rounds 10-12 inclusive.

A Golovkin majority decision coming in at +1380, against any other result at -1725.

Can Golovkin do enough to impress the Las Vegas judges in his first venture to Nevada?. Time will tell but given that judge CJ Ross managed to find a 114-114 card during Alvarez’s seemingly one-sided loss to Mayweather, there is cause for concern.

Questions have been raised about the judging appointments this time, with veterans Adelaide Byrd and Dave Moretti under the spotlight. Third judge Don Trella is generally perceived as a good pair of eyes. He has been afforded little scrutiny compared to the other two.

A solid +685 on Canelo snatching a split decision victory, therefore, may tempt punters in for a flutter.

Canelo vs GGG Verdict

If I had to lay my cards on the table I’d favour a Golovkin split decision.

He’ll have to clearly take eight of the 12 rounds if he’s going to have any joy on the jduges’ score totals. Even though Alvarez tires late on in fights I’m not as swayed by the late KO as other observers.

Has GGG slipped a little or were there mitigating factors behind the performances against Kell Brook and Danny Jacobs?. He looked less than human in the latter. However that’s what happens when the level of opposition hits a steep incline. Even great fighters find it more difficult to dominate.

A multitude of questions, without any clear-cut answers proves that this is a tantalising 50-50 matchup, the likes of which, fight fans have been treated to on a more regular basis in 2017. Long may that continue.

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