Football Betting Guide: Strategies for Success
Best Football Betting Site for Odds
You could put forward a case for the best football betting odds site to be an Exchange betting site.
The Exchange sites have the upper hand in the provision of bigger odds as they eliminate the bookmaker's margin of profit.
This would be true, but then you have to offset the price with the commission you pay out on your winnings, 2% to 5%.
There is, however, one online bookmaker that has, for years, been established in 1998, and has played on its USP (unique selling point) of providing bigger football odds and better value prices for punters.
That bookmaker is SpreadEx, where you get the best of both worlds with a sportsbook and exchange site in one.
The main reasons why Exchanges can sometimes provide better odds when compared to other football betting sites online:
- Tighter Margins on their profits mean the better odds are passed onto the punter.
- Premier League margins are lower compared to the industry's 6% average.
- An industry leader in Sports betting.
Reasons to bet at the Exchange betting sites.
- Highly Competitive Football Odds.
- Higher Limits on your bets.
- Win Big and still keep playing. Betfair doesn't mind winning players and their winning bets. They won't close your account or try to confiscate your winnings – yes, unfortunately, there are still some rogue betting sites that try to pull a fast one with players' winnings.
0-0 Score Money Back
The No Score Bore Draw Money Back offer means that any match you place a bet on using the “Correct Score betting market” will be refunded.
The best part is that there is generally no limit to your refund on these offers.
So unlike the accumulator bet refund, which has a limit, the no score draw refund should cover whatever amount you put on.
Bet365 is the best known football betting site that offers refunds on when the match you wager on ends in 0-0 or a no score draw.
Football Betting Sites With Cash Out
Take your profit when you want with the following bookmakers that offer the ability to Cash Out your bets early – putting you in control of your profit.
The featured Cash Out betting sites below all allow you to Cash Out your football bets.
William Hill Cash Out
One of the top cash-out UK betting sites is Boylesports, and they introduced their cash-out feature in late 2012 before adding it to their mobile app in January 2014.
The cash out option is available across a wide number of sports such as football, tennis, and darts, and can be used on in-play and tournament bets.
William Hill also offers the partial cash out feature, using a slider on their website.
Boylesports Cash Out
Much like William Hill, Boylesports offers a full cash-out feature on its website.
The potential returns and remaining stake are shown on the cash out button, and you can adjust the slider accordingly.
Boylesports allows cash-outs on singles and multiple bets.
Betfred Cash Out
Betfred’s cash-out feature is available on single and multiple bets for sports, including horse racing (both win and each way), football, and golf.
To lock in your cash-out amount, simply press the cash-out button, but be aware that Betfred does not offer a partial cash-out feature, so you will need to look elsewhere if that is what you want.
About the Cash Out Betting Feature
All the football betting sites listed above offer cash out as a feature for your football bets, as well as many other sports.
As online betting becomes the main, more and more popular, football betting sites have been introducing new ways to entice customers to their website.
One of those ways is by creating new and exciting betting features like live betting. One such feature to complement live betting is the cash-out option.
[su_icon_text icon=”icon: info-circle” icon_color=”#16a012″ icon_size=”30″]Cash out betting allows punters to settle bets before the end of the event.[/su_icon_text]We list the best football betting sites with Cash Out as an option for your football bets.
Many online bookmakers offer the cash-out feature on bets placed on their website, but some are better than others.
This is because they offer Cash Out on more sports and give you the choice of either Full or Partial Cash outs.
The Cash Out betting feature enables you to bank some of your winnings before the end result of the football match.
You can also use Partial Cash Out, which means you can take your profit but allow some of the remaining bet amount to carry on until the final result.
Partial Cash Out is not available at all the football betting sites, but is becoming a more common feature.
Example of Cashing Out a Football Bet
For example, if you placed a bet on Manchester United to defeat Liverpool at 3/2 and you have placed a bet of £100, you stand to make £150 profit if the bet is successful.
If, at half-time, the score is 1-0 to Manchester United and the online betting company offers you £180, you will make an £80 profit if you accept the proposal.
If you decide to cash out at this point, your bet ends immediately, regardless of what else happens in the match.
You must decide whether it is in your interests to cash out at a specific point during a live betting sporting event or keep your bet open until the event ends.
Partial cash out is also an option at some football betting sites, and this allows you to cash out part of your bet and allow the remainder to run until the event finishes.
The 2 Cash Out Options
As highlighted above, the two main cash-out options are full cash-out and partial cash-out.
Full Cash Out
Full cash out means you will receive the full amount being offered at the time of the cashed-out bet.
The bet will then close immediately. You can use auto cash out when this is available at football betting sites.
Partial Cash Out
A partial cash out means you can decide how much of the bet you want to cash out and leave the remaining stake running until the end of the live betting event.
This seems to offer the best of both worlds, but you must always be careful when making your decision.
When to Cash Out?
The best time to use cash out is when your bet is in a winning live betting position.
The team, player, or horse you have backed is coming under increasing pressure. The opposition appears as though they could turn things around. If that is the case, cashing out is a good idea.
If you placed an accumulator bet and four of your six selections are winning by a 2-goal margin but two are only winning by a 1-goal margin, you will receive a good cash-out offer.
The amount will still be lower than if you won the original bet.
However, just one of those two 1-0 results needs to change, and you will lose.
When Not to Cash Out?
However, there are times when you should resist the temptation to cash out.
If you bet what you can afford to lose, cashing out early for less than your stake is not a good choice.
Much can happen in sport, and cashing out very early for less than you stake could cost you a lot of money, especially if the result changes.
Best Football betting sites for Accumulators
Thanks to the advent of online football betting, many new betting options have become available to punters around the world.
One of the most popular forms of football betting is accumulator bets, and you can find this option available at all good bookmakers online.
However, some football betting sites do it better than others. Below you will find examples of the best betting sites for football accumulators.
What is a Football Accumulator?
Football accumulators are loved by gamblers. This is because they offer the chance to bet across several different football matches. You can then combine the bets into one single bet, with greater odds.
So, if you plan to bet on the winner of two or more football matches, you can add these bets together and the bookmaker will automatically generate new odds for you based on the chosen games and bets.
The odds will always be larger than the individual odds on the matches.
While the odds will be greater on an accumulator bet than a bet placed on a single match, the risk of losing the bet also increases.
If you have a five-match accumulator bet and one of your selections is a loser, the whole bet fails.
Thankfully, there are ways around this, which we will come to shortly.
Football accumulator bets are fun and a great way to add interest across various football leagues around the world.
So, what are the best football betting sites for accumulators?
As mentioned above, there are many football betting sites that provide football accumulator bets, but some offer better options and deals than others.
Best Accumulator Insurance Betting Sites
Acca or Accumulator Insurance is a popular promotion offered by online football betting sites.
How it works is that if you place your football accumulator containing five or more legs, teams, and one of those selections lets you down, you receive a refund ranging from up to £10 of your initial stake up to £50.
The amount returned as insurance differs between the football betting sites and their individual offers.
It's a good insurance to have as it gives you a chance to have another go at placing an accumulator bet.
Or at least it means you won't be burning a hole in your betting bank if you go through a spell of being let down by one result.
Football Betting coupons
Football betting coupons can be an incredibly fun way to wager on matches.
Punters can find football betting coupons that target specific trebles and fourfold bets and win large payouts for very little money staked.
You may find that a coupon brings variety to your football betting, or if you are new to wagering on the sport, football betting coupons are simple ways to begin betting.
So, which coupons should you explore?
Football Betting coupons – Match results
There are a variety of football betting coupons you can find online or at your local betting shop. The most popular football betting coupons are for match results.
The coupon makes betting on football matches easy and fast.
You can wager on singles, doubles, trebles, or accumulators when using a coupon.
Betting websites such as Boylesports offer odds on a coupon for punters to select match winners from.
Once you make your selections, you can sit back and watch the results roll in.
You will need to wait until the full 90 minutes are up in each match to know if you have won your bet.
Football Betting coupons – Both teams to score
Another great football betting sites coupon is the both teams to score coupon.
This coupon allows you to make your selections based on whether both teams will score or not.
It is pretty simple, and the description is pretty much in the name.
Punters can select singles, doubles, trebles, a fourfold, or accumulators when placing this bet.
Betfred has a great both teams to score coupon for punters to enjoy.
Selections are quick and easy to make.
Not only can you make your selections in no time at all, but you canalso wager a small amount of money with the chance to win a payout.
The best part about a both teams to score coupon is you won't need one of the teams to win the match.
All you need to do is hope both teams score – or don't.
If you select both teams to score in the fixture, you could have the bet won before the match even reaches halftime.
The match result does not factor into whether the bet is a winner or loser.
Betfred Goals Galore
Betfred's Goals Galore coupon is one of the most exciting specialty coupons offered to punters.
Goals Galore is only offered by Betfred and gives you another reason to open an account with the sportsbook.
Punters simply select three or more matches on their coupon and whether or not both teams will score.
After making the selections, you can sit back and watch the matches and count the goals.
The Goals Galore coupon is similar to the both teams to score coupon.
However, you can use a bonus coupon to enhance the odds.
Win, lose or draw, you will win this bet depending on the goals.
Football betting coupons make betting on the game even more exciting.
If you have never tried a football betting coupon, add one to your betting strategy this weekend.
Watch the goals roll in and enjoy your wins using the best football betting sites.
Football Betting Systems
There is a lot more to betting on football than meets the eye and a football betting strategy can help in the long term.
If you are a casual football gambler who usually bets on your own team to win matches, a football betting system may be something you have never considered.
However, if you want to try and take your football betting to the next level, it is something you could use.
Choosing the Best Football Betting Strategies
A good football betting strategy can be anything from betting on a team to score under 2.5 goals, who have a poor record in front of goal, to betting on a team to score over 2.5 goals if they have been finding the back of the net frequently.
These are football strategies based on statistics, but there are other, more complex football betting strategies available.
Do you bet on Long Odds?
It can be very tempting to bet on teams that have long odds in the hope that they win and you will receive a good return from one bet.
The reality is that this team is highly likely to lose the match, hence the long odds, and you end up losing the bet.
Bet In-Play on the Favourite
A better football live betting strategy would be to back big favourites to win matches in-play as an accumulator and use lower league and lesser-known countries.
Combine Lower League Favourites
Prices in lesser-known leagues can be more attractive, and by completing a little research, you can find big favourites in games that still have decent odds and combine them to make an accumulator.
The returns may be modest, but by backing favourites and in-play leaders to win matches as an accumulator, you could build up a good profit.
Research and analysis are required when using any football betting strategy.
Top 4 Football Betting Systems
A football betting system is different from a football betting strategy.
A football betting system follows a specific set of rules that attempts to make the most money possible when things are in favour of the gambler and limit the losses when things go against the gambler.
If you search for football betting systems online, you will find many websites that offer to sell you a system and guaranteed profits.
The truth of the matter is that no one can guarantee a bet will be a winner, and these systems do not guarantee success.
However, there are football betting systems you can use, which provide a great way of managing your money and give you the best chances of making a winning football bet.
#1. Back and Lay Betting Exchange System
The back-and-lay strategy is a good option. This involves using a betting exchange.
To back an outcome is to place a bet for it to happen.
To lay an outcome is to place a bet for it not to happen.
You can use back and lay bets on some matches to guarantee a profit, and this makes it a good football betting strategy, but you must always remember your liability can exceed your potential winnings.
#2. Martingale System
The Martingale System is a well-known betting system in the casino world and can be applied to football, albeit with very limited success.
Essentially, the Martingale System asks you to double you next bet after every losing bet.
So, if you place a £10 bet on a match and it loses, you will need to bet £20 on the next match.
When you place a winning bet, you start the system again.
While this seems like a good football betting system, you need a large amount of money because you could double your stake multiple times before placing a winning bet.
#3. Labouchere Betting Strategy
The second football betting strategy you could use is called the Labouchere System.
This can be used on even money bets in football, and similarly to the Martingale System, you must increase your bet after every loss.
Your initial bankroll is split into several smaller bets, and these are used to give you the figure you need to bet on the match.
If the bet wins, you can cross off both numbers from the list, but if it loses, you need to place the sum of the two numbers on the right side of the line, which, of course, adds to the amount of money you will be betting.
This football betting system works mathematically, but again, you need a large sum of money in reverse because the size and number of bets you need to place can quickly increase.
#4. Kelly Criterion Betting Strategy
The final football betting strategy, and perhaps the most successful, is the Kelly Criterion.
This system will work out the optimal-sized bet you should place on the value offered by the bet.
The maths behind the system can be quite complicated, and the base formula is as follows:
(bankroll) BR% = (P*B) – 1 / odds – 1
P be the probability of a winning bet, B is the odds, and BR% is the percent of the bankroll we should bet.
So, if Manchester City is playing Manchester United and the odds for a City win are 1.45.
You estimate Manchester City has a 55% chance of winning the match. You would then calculate the following:
BR% = (0.55*1.45) – 1 / (1.45 – 1) = 0.6778
This means you should bet 67.78% of your total bankroll on Manchester City to win the match.
So, if your bankroll was £100, you would be £67.78 with the chance of winning £30.50.
While you need to have a sound judgment of which teams will win games, the Kelly Criterion is arguably the best football betting strategy available.
Essential Football Betting Guide for Beginners
Football betting rewards clear thinking, solid maths, and a calm temperament. Get those three right and football turns from a coin toss into a game of prices, probabilities, wagering and discipline. This football betting guide walks through an approach that helps you make smarter calls, protect your bankroll and find edges that compound – all while offering betting tips and match analysis that any enthusiast would appreciate.
Value first: price beats prediction
Most bettors start with the question “who will win?” Professionals start with “what price is fair?” That shift matters. Odds are just prices that encode implied probability. If a side is 2.50 in decimal odds, that implies a 40 percent chance. If your predictions say the true chance is closer to 50 percent, the price is in your favour.
The job is straightforward in theory, demanding in practice. Estimate probabilities with data and context, convert bookmaker odds to implied percentages, then only bet (or place your wager) when your estimate is higher than the market’s. Small edges repeated often add up to a significant profit over time.
- Convert odds: Translate decimal, fractional or American odds into implied percentage
- Estimate chance: Use stats, modelling, and team news to produce your own probability and match analysis
- Compare: Only bet when your estimate exceeds the implied chance by a meaningful margin
- Pass often: No edge, no bet. Boredom is expensive, so if no good wager exists, simply pass
Core strategies at a glance
| Strategy | What it is | When to use | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value betting | Back outcomes with positive expected value | Everyday markets | Requires your own probability estimates and strict record keeping, along with careful match analysis |
| Arbitrage | Cover all outcomes at different prices to lock profit | When price gaps appear across books or exchanges | Low yield, low risk. Needs multiple accounts and fast execution. A smart wager here can secure profit |
| Matched betting | Convert free bets and bonuses into cash via hedging | Welcome offers and promos | Near risk free when executed properly, good for beginners; an accumulator of small wins builds bankroll |
| Statistical analysis | Models that rate teams and simulate outcomes | Leagues with stable data | Poisson for goals, Elo ratings, xG metrics driven estimates, and over/under analysis for over 2.5 goals can be particularly insightful |
| Odds shopping | Taking the best available price across books | Always | Price differences often dwarf any edge from opinion alone, especially in competitive football markets like the Premier League, Bundesliga, and Serie A |
Arbitrage and matched betting without the myths
Arbitrage is mechanical. You back one side at a high price and back the other side elsewhere at a low enough price that any result gives a profit. The edge exists because bookmakers and Exchanges move at different speeds or include different margins. Returns per opportunity are usually small, and accounts can be restricted if you arb frequently, yet it can be part of a diversified approach.
Matched betting focuses on promotions rather than price gaps. Use a free bet to back a team at a sportsbook, then lay the same outcome on an exchange. With the right stakes and wager sizes, you turn the free bet into cash regardless of the result. It is not glamorous, but it is a practical way to build a starting bankroll with controlled risk, provided you track terms, play within promo rules and settle every position correctly.
Modelling the game with data
Data turns hunches into probabilities. Simple, robust models outperform guesswork, and you do not need a PhD to start.
- Poisson models estimate goal counts using attack and defence rates adjusted for opposition strength and home advantage. Even a basic version teaches you how totals, correct score prices, and over/under markets for over 2.5 goals relate to team quality across football competitions.
- Elo or power ratings update team strength after each match. They are quick to maintain and adapt well across leagues, whether it be the Premier League, Bundesliga, or Serie A.
- xG metrics reveal shot quality and chance creation better than raw scorelines. A side riding a streak of long-range screamers looks different when you examine chance volume and location.
- Home advantage still matters in elite leagues, lifting the home team’s win chance well above a 50–50 in football fixtures. Adjust your numbers accordingly, and don’t forget to consider traditional handicaps that further refine your stake selections.
A model is a decision aid, not a blindfold. Check your outputs against breaking news, fixture congestion, travel, tactical shifts and the referee’s profile with cards history. If your model says Team A has 55 percent yet the market is 40 percent, pause and check line-ups, injuries and weather before you fire your wager.
Team news, context, and weather
Numbers set the baseline, context shifts it. A missing playmaker, a centre back suspended, or a forward carrying a knock can change a match’s texture as well as the price. So can a midweek European trip, a tired squad after extra time, or a manager rotating before a cup final.
The pitch and the sky matter too. Heavy rain reduces tempo and raises error rates, which often favours direct, physical approaches. Heat and humidity can sap pressing sides late in games. A gusty afternoon makes long diagonals messy and set pieces more chaotic, so adjust your wagering accordingly.
Derbies and relegation battles add psychology and noise. Motivation spikes, game plans tighten or fray, and underdogs punch above weight more often than models expect. You can quantify some of this through historical distributions and cards frequencies, yet the key is to price uncertainty realistically rather than pretend it is not there.
- Injuries and suspensions
- Fixture congestion and travel
- Referee profile and card (cards) tendency
- Pitch and weather
- Motivation and stakes
- Derby dynamics
Reading the market like a pro
Prices move for reasons. Some moves are news led, others are the crowd piling into favourites, and some reflect informed money or accumulator bettors making their wager.
Early moves in quiet periods often signal sharp opinion. Sudden drops after reliable line-up leaks or injury updates are information events, not sentiment. Late swings near kick-off can be driven by public accumulators or betting tips from fellow fans, which sometimes create value on the unfancied side. Exchanges show you depth and price changes in real time, helping you judge whether a drift is noise or a signal. The rule of thumb is simple: understand why the number changed before deciding whether to follow, fade or avoid.
Bankroll, staking and long-term survival
You will have losing weeks even with a real edge. The difference between hobby and habit is bankroll discipline.
Most seasoned bettors risk a small fraction of their bank per wager, often 1 to 2 percent, rarely more than 3 to 5 percent. Flat staking, where every bet uses the same unit, keeps variance tolerable and emotion in check. Proportional staking scales your stake with your bankroll, which compounds gains and softens drawdowns.
Kelly-based staking ties stake size to your estimated edge. It can grow a bank quickly when your edge is well measured, yet it punishes estimation error. Many use a half or quarter Kelly to reduce volatility.
Decide your loss limits in advance. A daily or weekly stop keeps you from chasing when tilted. Set deposit, time and reality-check limits with your bookmakers, then stick to them.
Track everything in a spreadsheet or app: date, market, odds, stake, pre-match reasoning and a brief match analysis, along with a screenshot of the price.
Over time, your record will show which leagues, bet types and price ranges pay and which burn time.
Bet types you actually need
The menu of markets is long, but you only need a handful to build a sharp, repeatable approach when wagering on football.
| Bet type | What it really means |
|---|---|
| Match result 1X2 | Three-way market: home, draw or away. Bread and butter for value hunting in football, with predictions often guiding your wager |
| Double chance | Cover two of the three outcomes. Lower price, higher hit rate |
| Totals over or under | Goals combined or team totals. Natural match for Poisson models and xG insights. This also applies to over/under bets such as over 2.5 goals |
| Both teams to score | Yes or no. Driven by chance creation and defensive structure |
| Asian handicap | Handicap lines that adjust for team strength and often remove the draw, improving pricing clarity. Additional handicaps can further refine bets |
| Correct score | Long odds lottery unless tied to a well-calibrated totals model |
| In-play | Prices update during the match. Edges come from faster information and measured game state models, ideal for live wagering and match analysis |
Start with 1X2, totals and Asian lines. They are liquid, priced tightly, and teach you how the market connects team strength, goal expectancy and result probabilities.
Odds formats and quick probability checks
Understanding formats prevents costly mistakes. Decimal odds show total return per unit staked. Fractional odds show profit relative to stake. American odds use plus and minus to denote underdogs and favourites. All can be translated into the same implied percentage, which is the only number that matters for value.
- Decimal to percent: Implied probability equals 1 divided by odds
- Fractional to percent: Turn A/B into decimal by adding 1, then invert
- American to percent: Positive odds convert via 100 divided by (odds plus 100); negative via odds divided by (odds plus 100)
- Overround awareness: Bookmakers bake in margin. Compare multiple books to reduce paying that tax
A reliable pre-match process
A tidy routine beats hot takes. Here is a compact sequence that keeps your analysis sharp and your staking sane.
- Build your baseline numbers for both teams, including attack and defence strength and home advantage in football leagues such as the Premier League, Bundesliga, and Serie A.
- Check team news, suspensions, expected line-ups and likely formation tweaks as part of your match analysis.
- Adjust for context: travel, fixtures, weather, referee card (cards) rate, motivation.
- Convert market odds to implied percentages and compare to your estimates and betting tips.
- Stake within plan only when you have positive value, otherwise pass.
- Record the bet with reasoning, including any accumulator rationale, and a screenshot of the price for future wagering review.
Psychology, bias and staying in control
Your own mind can be the biggest leak. Favourite-team bias nudges you towards your club. Recency bias pulls you into overweighting last week’s thrashing. The gambler’s fallacy whispers that a losing streak must end now. Herding makes social media confidence look like evidence. The antidote is process: pre-match checklists, fixed staking, and outcome-independent reviews. Treat betting as paid analysis, not a sprint to recover a bad day.
If it stops being fun or you feel pressure, pause. Use the tools bookmakers provide to limit deposits, set time-outs and even self exclude if needed. Only bet money you can afford to lose. Football is brilliant entertainment—whether you are chasing a simple wager or building an accumulator—and keeping it enjoyable is paramount.
Building your edge over time
Edges rarely arrive fully formed. They come from testing ideas with small stakes, learning a league’s rhythms, and refining how your model mixes data with context.
Specialise. One or two leagues, a few bet types, deep knowledge of football and match analysis.
Keep shopping for price, keep passing on thin edges, and keep records. The craft is cumulative. You do not need to be perfect. You only need to be disciplined, selective and a little better than the price.